Published in the 31 May 2008 issue of the Indian Express
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/united-colours-of-a-black-revolution/316841/
Taimur Malik
In the February general elections, the people of Pakistan elected their political representatives not merely on the basis of caste, tribe and promises of economic prosperity but more so on the basis of the general stance of the political parties on eliminating the role of the military in Pakistan’s political system for ever and PML(N)’s principled position on the restoration of the judiciary.
It is widely accepted that the lawyers’ movement and the increasingly influential electronic media of the country have played an important role in changing the political paradigm in Pakistan. Politics has undergone a sea change in the 15 months since the day President Musharraf tried to rein in the judicial arm of the state by suspending the chief justice on March 9, 2007.
The change is evident. Today, no politician in Pakistan can afford to stand before a crowd and talk in favour of military intervention in politics, neither can any jurist attempt to discuss in a positive light the infamous “doctrine of necessity” which has been used by the superior judiciary to justify military interventions in the past.
The recent news items on the weakening of Musharraf’s grip on power are directly attributable to the lawyer-led “black revolution” taking centrestage in Pakistan’s politics and the mandate given by the electorate to the political parties.
However, the latest rumours and reports in this respect are emanating not from the parliament but from decisions taken by the Pakistan army, which is known for its discipline and command structure and hence loyalty to the chief of army staff. Analysts are viewing the recent decision to change the commander of a strategic brigade as a signal that the military is not going to support the presidency against the political forces.
It is imperative to note that the politicians are also seen stating, in response to certain rumours, that the chief of army staff should also not pressure the president to leave his office either and that the issue of any impeachment and removal, etc should be left to the parliament. This is an unintended assertion of the supremacy of parliament and the change that the lawyers’ movement — and the support extended to it by the electorate in the general elections — has achieved.
News anchors are busy debating whether the president will resign and give in to pressure and whether or not US support for Musharraf stands withdrawn. However, the more important questions are whether Musharraf’s resignation would serve any useful purpose for the country and if his removal will automatically lead to the supremacy of parliament and the restoration of the judiciary? The latter questions are problematic for the PPP, the leading coalition partner, which is yet to discard the impression of a back-room deal with Musharraf to secure the promulgation of the National Reconciliation Ordinance, which has provided immunity to many of its top leaders.
The stance of the PML(N) is very clear on this issue and it wants Musharraf to quit and the judiciary to be restored with dignity immediately. However, the PPP leadership seems unlikely to announce the restoration of the judiciary even if Musharraf leaves office. The PPP cannot afford the risk of being put under scrutiny by the restored judiciary, especially the chief justice. Moreover, the risk of the ordinance being re-examined by the restored judges is real and may lead to an unfavourable situation for the PPP.
Therefore, while the departure of Musharraf from the presidency would be celebrated, it would also mark the beginning of a new and difficult period for the PPP. The argument that the restoration of the judiciary be achieved through a voluminous constitutional package requiring a two-thirds majority in parliament will be difficult to sustain in view of the strengthened lawyers’ movement and political forces led by the PML(N). Furthermore, any attempts by the PPP to give constitutional cover and legal immunity to the president’s past actions will be met with stiff resistance from all quarters and seriously damage the PPP’s existing vote bank.
The lawyers have announced a long march on June 10, if the deposed judges are not restored by then. Optimists like to believe that a 62-point constitutional package will be presented before parliament during the second week of June; however, others doubt the possibility of any political consensus in this respect. The PML(N)-led Punjab government has already announced support for the lawyers’ movement and if the recent events at bar councils across the country are any indication, it will take a new turn on June 10, and this time the PPP will be at the receiving end as well.